Trends – Events – Analysis

• 02-22 - BP Exits California
As political maneuvering continues over the fate of the controversial proposed Keystone XL pipeline, one of the world's largest energy companies — BP — is already signaling the direction it plans to take: it's positioning itself to tap the burgeoning supply of Canadian tar sands oil.

• 02-20 - Crude Oil Analysis for the Week of February 20, 2012
The inability to penetrate a major 50 percent price level at $95.13 helped form a new bottom at $95.81 on the April Crude Oil weekly chart. With two main bottoms in place at $93.27 and $95.13, momentum shifted to the upside, triggering a slight breakout above a pair of main tops at $103.08 and $104.10. This trading action reaffirmed the uptrend and has set up the market for a breakout to the upside.

• 02-20 - Kazakhstan – One of the Safest Former Soviet Republics for Investment
When the USSR collapsed in December 1991, the emerging fifteen new nations scrambled amidst hyperinflation to restructure their economies away from a centrally planned economy directed by Moscow to sovereign, free market ones that could attract desperately needed foreign direct investment (FDI).

• 02-17 - The 5-Minute Speech that Got Judge Napolitano Fired from Fox News
Video

• 02-17 - Which Trends Are Changing the World of Energy
Technology and global competition are profoundly impacting our energy future. The evidence is all around us in wind and solar energy advances, horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing creating a new North American oil and gas boom market, and the technologies driving smart grid, microgrids, and constant energy management. What are the forces of change taking place in energy today?

• 02-16 - Asbestos deaths bring 16-year sentence
International conglomerate linked to 3,000 deaths

• 02-16 - Philipp Bagus On the LTRO and True Role of Central Banks
"You could easily solve this moral hazard by saying ok the ECB does not accept government bonds as collateral anymore. But then of course all governments would collapse...You have to think that for central banks, one of the main purposes is to finance governments, so if you stop this financing they go bankrupt immediately."

• 02-14 - US Financial Stocks Catching Up To Credit Weakness
We noted last week that credit spreads (particularly for financials in Europe and the US) were deteriorating rapidly. In Europe we saw financial stocks hold and then drop to catch up and once again today we see them holding up as credit drops further. In the US, from yesterday's gap up open exuberance, the major financials are significantly underperforming as they catch up to the ugly reality of the credit markets.

• 02-13 - Natural Gas Analysis for the Week of February 13, 2012
Last week, April Natural Gas traded in an inside range, indicating that it may be going through a transition period. This should come as no surprise to chart watchers because two weeks ago when the market formed a closing price reversal bottom, I warned that there may be a 2 to 3 week rally equal to at least 50 percent of the previous swing down.

• 02-13 - European Commission clears Google, Motorola merger
Summary: The European Commission has cleared Google's bid to acquire Motorola Mobility for $12.5 billion. But the fight is not over yet, with several (albeit smaller) hurdles to clear.

• 02-11 - California's New Triple Bottom Line
Best in the world? Try best FOR the world. The Golden State welcomes a new kind of corporation.

• 02-10 - On Banknotes
There is a curious story in the Swiss press today. On the surface it appears innocuous. However....

• 02-10 - Syngenta PR's Weed-Killer Spin Machine: Investigating the Press and Shaping the "News" about Atrazine
Check out the hidden mechanisms involved in high-powered spin campaigns.

• 02-09 - Foreign Troops Enter Syria
British and Qatari special operations units are operating with rebel forces under cover in the Syrian city of Homs just 162 kilometers from Damascus, according to debkafile's exclusive military and intelligence sources. The foreign troops are not engaged in direct combat with the Syrian forces bombarding different parts of Syria's third largest city of 1.2 million. They are tactical advisers, manage rebel communications lines and relay their requests for arms, ammo, fighters and logistical aid to outside suppliers, mostly in Turkey.

• 02-08 - ConocoPhillips May Exit Nigeria, Libya, Vietnam, Algeria and Kazakhstan
ConocoPhillips is an integrated energy company with assets of approximately $75 billion, and employs 56,000 people across 49 countries. They have recently announced plans to sell assets in Nigeria, Libya and three other countries up to the value of $17 billion. It is thought that the funds will be used as part of a plan to boost shareholder returns with share buybacks and higher dividends.

• 02-06 - India Drops the Dollar and Pays for Iranian Oil in Gold
Media reports suggests that India has agreed to pay the price of crude oil it imports from Iran in gold, which makes it the first country to drop the US dollar for purchasing the Iranian oil.

• 02-05 - Why Closure of the Strait of Hormuz Could Ignite a War and a Global Depression
The Strait of Hormuz — through which one-fifth the planet's oil supply travels — is suddenly the site of tensions between the US and Iran.

• 02-03 - DOJ's Latest "Beat Down" on Swiss Banks
Wow! The Department of Justice took an extraordinary step yesterday. It indicted Swiss private bank, Bank Wegelin, for aiding and abetting in US income tax fraud. This is a big deal.

• 02-02 - World's Largest Rare Earth Metal Refinery to Open in Malaysia
China holds a global monopoly of rare earth metal, vital to smart phones, wind turbines, electric vehicles and many other components of the modern world. During a territorial dispute in 2010 with Japan it cut its exports causing a market bubble in which prices increased by as much as 30 times; and whilst prices did drop last year they still remain far higher than previous levels.

• 01-30 - Has Housing Really Bottomed?
Massive intervention by Federal agencies and the Federal Reserve have kept the market from discovering price and the risk premium in real estate. That sets up a "catch the falling knife" possibility for impatient real estate investors.

• 01-30 - Crude Oil Market Forecast for the Week of January 30, 2012
March crude oil closed higher last week after the Fed announced it would keep interest rates at ultra-low levels until late-2014. The news helped trigger a short-covering rally which turned the market around after an earlier set-back.

From a long-term perspective the main trend is up, but the developing double-top at $103.20 to $103.90 indicates the presence of selling pressure. Conventional chart pattern analysis says, however, that the double-top will not be confirmed until the swing bottom at $92.95 is violated.

Short-term traders seem to be most concerned with the $92.95 to $103.90 range. The mid-point of this range is $98.43. This price appears to be acting like a pivot price. Regaining this price level after a failed breakdown last week suggests a slight upward bias. This puts crude oil in a position to open up firm this week, setting up the possibility of a test of the $103.20 to $103.90 tops.

• 01-26 - Between Various Rocks and Various Hard Places
Having stipulated that "Forecasting Is Not Humanity's Strength," I will not make any foolish forecasts that will assuredly be proven wrong, but it is undoubtedly true that the U.S. and Europe are both entering a "crunch time" politically and financially.

• 01-26 - Enter the Dragon — China to Increase Energy Investment in Pakistan
The current administration of Pakistani President Asif Zadari is beset by multiple problems. Relations with its ally in the "global war on terror," the U.S. have plummeted to their lowest ever level. But for the average Pakistani, of more immediate concern is the country's ongoing energy crisis.

• 01-25 - Goldman Now Aggressively Selling Apple To Clients, Hikes Price Target To $600
In case one was wondering how the Goldman trading team was axed in Apple, we now know that they are pushing their inventory of stock in the name out of the door and to clients harder than ever, having just released a forecast with a $600 price target. However, with nearly 200 hedge fund holders in the name, and pregnant to the teeth in the stock, we fail to find who the incremental buyer of GS' AAPL stock will be. From the report:

• 01-25 - European Stress Reemerges As Risk Off Epicenter Following Portugal Admission It Needs €30 Billion Bailout
Even as the Euro-Dollar 3 Month basis swap has contracted to a nearly 6 month low at -75 bps, on residual hopes that the LTRO will do anything to fix Europe (it won't — just compare it to the €442 billion 1 year LTRO from June 2009 which worked until it didn't for the simple reason that Europe does does not have a liquidity problem), Europe has once again reemerged as a source of risk off (not least of all because the fulcrum security benefiting from the LTRO — the Italian 2 year BTP is for the first time in weeks wider by 17 bps). Why? The same reason as always: Greece, with a touch of Portugal.

• 01-24 - Tension in the Persian Gulf threatens global oil supplies and stability
A decision by the European Union to ban imports of Iranian oil dramatically raised the temperature of the rhetoric about Iran's nuclear program, threatening to destabilize the region even further than two U.S-led wars and a series of recent uprising already have. Read more: http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-01/tension-in-the-persian-gulf-threatens-global-oil-supplies-and-stability.aspx?storyid=115971#ixzz1kPzUrINM

• 01-24 - Something's Fishy in Tripoli
Way back in early 2011, members of the U.N. Security Council had no problem getting a resolution through that authorized military force in Libya ostensibly to protect civilians from attacks by forces loyal to strongman Moammar Gadhafi. The year before, lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic were bickering over who did what and why in terms of the cancer-stricken Lockerbie bomber. This Scottish decision to release him, depending on which U.S. lawmaker you spoke with, was tied to a BP deal to drill for oil in Libya. Despite fractures in the new interim government in Tripoli and reports of renewed protests, a decision by the Italian government to quietly discuss trade relations suggests something isn't quite right in the way Western allies pick their fights.

• 01-23 - Currency Wars — Iran Banned From Trading Gold and Silver
Reuters report that the EU has agreed to freeze the assets of the Iranian central bank and ban all trade in gold and other precious metals with the Iranian Central Bank and other public bodies in Iran.

• 01-23 - Natural Gas Analysis for the Week of January 23, 2012
March Natural Gas gapped lower on the weekly chart. This is a rare occurrence that often indicates exhaustion in markets that have experienced prolonged moves down in terms of price and time, but since this market followed-through to the downside the rest of the week, it probably means lower prices to follow.

• 01-20 -
Next to nuclear power, the hydraulic fracturing natural gas extraction technique, more familiarly known as "fracking," is perhaps the world's most contentious energy production method. Bulgaria, a former Soviet satellite state, joined the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance in 2004 and the European Union in 2007. Despite a 2010 World Bank report noting that Bulgaria imports 43.79 percent of its energy needs, the country has decided to give the controversial "fracking" procedure a pass.

• 01-19 - Update on SOPA and PIPA
What's Happening With the Web Censorship Bills?

• 01-18 - China Economic Clout and Nuclear Expertise Invades Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is the largest supplier of oil to China and bilateral trade between the two countries soared to $58.5 billion in the period January-November 2011.